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Thread: Long on AMD

  1. #1
    Bored so I want to make a case for going long on AMD.

    This stock has rallied 20% the past 2 days after a devastating 26% drop 2 months prior. Company market cap is at 11 billion. Their main competitors being Intel and Nvidia which are at market cap of 162 billion/94 billion respectively.

    My case, AMD in the long run at least till 2020 will be a multibagger stock. There are a lot bears out there for this stock due to their past mistakes and not so stellar balance sheet...not to mention the company is currently unprofitable.
    I also feel some of these analysts doesn't understand the technology and AMD's master plan.

    So here's my case for AMD

  2. #2

    Long on AMD

    1. Infinity Fabric, the AMD pioneered technology that can glue CPU and GPU together with low latency is a game changer to Moore's law.

    • AMD cannot compete with Intel in the R&D department and cannot afford to introduce year after year, huge CPU dies with extra cores to compete which are extremely expensive with every SKU. AMD instead spent the last few years developing the infinity fabric, which allows them to glue multiple CPU cores and GPU cores together with almost perfect scaling. This means they can use their desktop low end processors and just glue them together with no extra R&D to make high core count server grade processors for peanuts. They can afford to be extremely competitive with pricing and performance thanks to this tech.


    • Their GPU sales will always be behind Nvidia even if they introduce something ridiculously awesome. So to pour massive amounts of R&D to compete, they again will use infinity fabric to double their GPU performance as die shrinks year after year.


    2. They have 0% market share in data servers...a 22 billion dollar revenue stream going 100% to Intel.

    • The new EPYC processors has better performance and cheaper than Intel's current offerings.


    • Single socket EPYC server processors can support 128 PCI-E lanes in which Intel cannot match even in their upcoming offering. THIS IS THE KEY! 128 PCI-E = More terabytes of storage per server unit without needing to buy more processors essentially decreasing cost, space, heat, and power consumption!!!! 128 PCI-E lanes also = more GPUs can be connected to a single server for deep learning or high end animation work. To people who think AMD may just take a little market share of the server market is high, this is what companies are salivating over!


    • AMD already partnered up with Drop box, 1&1, Baidu, Dell, Microsoft, and Samsung. These are not your no name customers. They currently love what AMD has to offer.


    3. Intel F-up
    • AMD will release a high end desktop CPU called Threadripper next month, which is just two Ryzen cores glued together. They will offer this part for $850 for a 16 core/32 thread part.


    • Intel's response is universally hated by tech enthusiasts(check out any tech youtube channel and you'll see them bashing intel). The new X299 platform is rushed due to AMD's Ryzen comeback which introduced broken motherboards and chips running extremely hot. Intel's newest offering to combat Threadripper also support less PCI-E lanes and ends up being 2x more expensive. They will also be 5 months late. In the tech world, being 5 months late is an eternity.


    • Intel's 7 years of stagnation and price gouging due to lack of a competitor left many tech enthusiast sour. Many are switching to AMD just on principle alone. Of course the mainstream buyers will still prefer intel..but AMD's low pricing is hard to ignore.


    • Without something like infinity fabric, Intel has to spend more money manufacturing high core count CPUs with lower yields. This prevents them from lowering the price of their high end chip without losing massive amounts of margin. AMD just needs to produce 4 perfect ryzen 7 processors and glue of them together..Intel needs to produce perfect 22 core or 32 core processors.


    4. Dr. Lisa Su as the CEO

    • Dr. Su's road map to profitability is extremely promising. The infinity fabric will allow them to scale well into the future without high manufacturing cost and R&D.


    • She is extremely focused on revenue. You can tell by her abandoning the race for superior GPU for enthusiast this generation because high end GPUs are money losers compared to Nvidia..this is a space they will never win even with a blockbuster hit. Nvidia just has superior brand awareness. Instead she focuses on mainstream GPUs, giving the masses cheap VR and 4k capable GPU without the hefty price tag. The newest Vega GPU will be a flop among gamers(it will not beat Nvidia's 1080Ti). Their determination to develop HBM2 (high bandwidth memory) tells me that their goal is to use infinity fabric on Vega to produce Navi with ease and can double performance with low R&D cost after the next die shrink. This is their master plan with GPUs..so people looking at the short term will definitely be disappointed.


    • She knows that the money is in the developers and data centers. She prioritize them first by producing high grade server CPUs with features companies crave for, and graphics chip tailored more to animators and deep learning vs enthusiast gamers.


    For all the reasons above, I believe AMD will one day become a 50 billion dollar company...eating away Intel's market share. They will also dominate the console market (like current gen) because Nvidia will just be too expensive for console makers to use. I don't see them taking away Nvidia's market share too much since that's a company more prepared for AMD's comeback. Time will tell with that one.

    Disclaimer: I have 20k invested with AMD.

  3. #3
    I guess we'll have to see how the gaming community responds to the Intel I9.

  4. #4
    I can tell you how. At first everyone will try to prove that i7 is better for gaming than i9 (as it happened in the case of i5 and i7) and later they will move on and embrace i9.

  5. #5
    The enthusiast community right now dislike the I9 due to bios instability and insane temps(almost 100c) when overclocked. Also it's drawing 50 watts more power than advertised(perhaps can be fixed with bios). The only processor that provides gamers with 44 PCI express lanes are the newly released 7900K. So for people who wants to do SLI/crossfire for 4k gaming and future proofing is SOL with any of Intel's cheaper processors for the x299 platform. Each high end GPU would like to have full 16 PCI lanes for max performance. All of intel's sub thousand dollar processors are gimped with only 28 PCI lanes. The 7900k is retailing at $999. Yes the 7900k is faster than AMD's 300 dollar processor at 1080p gaming by about 20%..but who buys a 1k cpu and not do 4k gaming? When it comes to 4k gaming, PCI lanes is MORE impt since you are GPU bound. Even AMD's 250 dollar chip is just a few % points slower than intel's 7900k here.

  6. #6
    commerce). At the end of the day, whoever holds the efficiency crown wins the game. AMD's 128 PCI-lanes and low power draw as a single socket processor looks to be the efficiency champion. If a company were to go Intel, they will need 2x more server racks just to hold the same storage and GPU cards as AMD's. Going AMD is almost a no-brainer until Intel gives them the I/O they need. Either Intel likes to price gouge or they just have no way of providing the business end with the PCI-E lanes they need with their lower end server chips. Unlike AMD who will provide you with full 128 lanes at even their lowest end 400 dollar server chips, Intel's offering is 1/4 of that for some reason.

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